Very public learning about statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence.

Epidemiology

Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing [preprint]

This is preprint I’ve submitted to PNAS detailing how time series modeling can be used to forecast policy outcomes and optimize our measles vaccination strategy in Pakistan. This collaboration with the World Health Organization, the Gates Foundation, and researchers in Pakistan helped motivate a large-scale vaccination campaign that happened in October 2018. For more details, check out the supplement.

Are there issues with the ecological evidence for measles-induced, long-term immune suppression? [preprint]

I was asked by colleagues at IDM and the Gates Foundation to take a close look at this paper which argues that measles infection causes immune system suppression lasting 2 to 3 years, much longer than previously thought. I found some potentially serious mathematical issues, summarized in this comment.

Basketball

Predicting scores with state space models

This post is still under construction.

Scraping data off of basketball reference

I’ve been (sorta) joking a lot about how IDM should use its new hardware for sports gambling. That (sorta) joke got taken a little further recently: I used PyQuery to write a web scraper for basketball-reference.com. My fantasy team still sucks this year (seriously, really bad), but this turned into a learning experience that’s given me some interesting data so I thought I’d share.